A Pathway for Sustainable Agriculture

Expanding populations, the impacts of climate change, availability arable land, and water for irrigation collectively strain agricultural system. To keep pace adapt to these challenges, food producers may adopt unsustainable practices that ultimately intensify strain. What is a course technological evolution adoption can break this cycle? In paper we explore set technologies production scenarios with new, reduced-order model. First model developed. The combines limitations in sustainable supply, productivity as function intensification, rising demands. Model inputs are derived from literature historical records. Monte Carlo simulation runs used potential existing future bring us ever closer more instead farther. This concept moving sustainability horizon (the year where be achieved current progress if demand remains constant). gap number years between present horizon. As increases, moves farther into future. technology improves present. Sustainability, therefore, when collides present, closing zero. We find one pathway management innovation closes within model’s outputs. scenario, micro-irrigation adoption, minimal change impacts, reduced waste, additional transformative innovations such smart greenhouses agrivoltaic systems needed. shows that, absence changes, continuing along our course, system would become insufficient decade following 2050.